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src='https://ad.eepw.com.cn/www/delivery/avw.php?zoneid=87&cb=INSERT_RANDOM_NUMBER_HERE&n=a576c0a2' border='0' alt='' /></a></iframe> </div> <span id="contentlabels" style="font-size:14px;"><p>　　目前模擬、<a class="contentlabel" href="http://dyxdggzs.com/news/listbylabel/label/內存"><em>內存</em></a>與PC芯片等市場(chǎng)，似乎處于淡季狀態(tài)──如果不是真的衰退;那么，半導體產(chǎn)業(yè)究竟是正朝向成長(cháng)速度趨緩、停滯，抑或是又一次恐怖的衰退?對此市場(chǎng)研究機構VLSI Research執行長(cháng)G.DanHutcheson認為，以上皆非，芯片產(chǎn)業(yè)在2010年的熱啟動(dòng)之后，將“回歸正常”。</p>本文引用地址：<a href="http://dyxdggzs.com/article/113293.htm">http://dyxdggzs.com/article/113293.htm</a> <p>　　也就是說(shuō)，芯片市場(chǎng)會(huì )冷卻到某種程度，回到一個(gè)更合理的成長(cháng)周期;但該市場(chǎng)仍有一些值得憂(yōu)慮的地方──9月份全球芯片銷(xiāo)售額數字就是一個(gè)警訊，可能預示今年剩下的時(shí)間與明年，市場(chǎng)表現會(huì )不如預期。“有一個(gè)說(shuō)法“9月定全年”，而9月份的芯片市場(chǎng)表現確實(shí)有些疲軟，而且是全球性的，”Hutcheson表示：“整體經(jīng)濟景氣的趨緩，已經(jīng)為半導體與電子產(chǎn)業(yè)帶來(lái)漣漪效應。”</p> <p>　　市場(chǎng)各領(lǐng)域則表現不一，Hutcheson指出，其中PC相關(guān)芯片銷(xiāo)售走緩，DRAM市場(chǎng)“面臨崩盤(pán)”，手機芯片表現強勁，NAND閃存也維持穩定，模擬芯片則好壞參半;此外芯片封裝與晶圓代工市場(chǎng)則表現合宜：“電子產(chǎn)品買(mǎi)氣趨緩，讓各家OEM對零組件采購抱持謹慎態(tài)度;這種情況也不令人驚訝，因為返校季已經(jīng)結束，學(xué)童都已經(jīng)回到學(xué)校上課。”</p> <p>　　VLSI Research仍維持原先對2010年芯片市場(chǎng)成長(cháng)率的預測，估計為33.7%;該機構對芯片設備產(chǎn)業(yè)的今年度成長(cháng)率預測則為103%。VLSIResearch指出，如果市場(chǎng)沒(méi)有冷卻，以上的預測數據可能要再上修;而真正受到?jīng)_擊的將會(huì )是2011年，估計明年芯片市場(chǎng)成長(cháng)率僅剩6.6%，同時(shí)間半導體設備產(chǎn)業(yè)的成長(cháng)率也會(huì )掉到10.6%。</p> <p>　　目前看來(lái)，很有理由對2010下半年與2011年初的市況感到憂(yōu)慮：“PC市場(chǎng)與消費性ic37持續步履蹣跚，連大廠(chǎng)英特爾(Intel)都聽(tīng)說(shuō)為了清庫存而大砍微處理器與芯片組產(chǎn)品價(jià)格;我們預期接下來(lái)的幾周，會(huì )看到微處理器現貨價(jià)面臨壓力。”VLSIResearch并強調，AMD、Intel與Nvidia都下修了業(yè)績(jì)展望。</p> <p>　　<a class="contentlabel" href="http://dyxdggzs.com/news/listbylabel/label/內存"><em>內存</em></a>市場(chǎng)也持續呈現頹勢;VLSIResearch指出，DRAM供貨商正面臨現貨持續急遽下滑的龐大壓力：“主流DDR3現貨價(jià)下滑的速度是24個(gè)月摩爾定律的(Moore’slawrate)的六倍以上，在這樣的跌價(jià)趨勢下，DRAM廠(chǎng)商的利潤面臨風(fēng)險;而其禍首是買(mǎi)氣不振的筆記本電腦市場(chǎng)，根據零售商BestBuy的指標，筆記本電腦銷(xiāo)售是受蘋(píng)果(Apple)iPad所影響。”</p> <p>　　據統計，DRAM每位單價(jià)下跌了3.7%，是兩年來(lái)的最大幅度;主流DDR3現貨價(jià)格則連續第五周大跌，下滑了5.4%。<a class="contentlabel" href="http://dyxdggzs.com/news/listbylabel/label/內存"><em>內存</em></a>模塊大廠(chǎng)金士頓Kingston的一位高層主管表示，市場(chǎng)需求如果在未來(lái)3~4季持續低迷，DRAM市場(chǎng)就會(huì )面臨風(fēng)險。DRAM現貨市場(chǎng)的低迷也蔓延到合約市場(chǎng)，整體DRAM合約價(jià)下跌了5.2%;而DDR3合約價(jià)更掉了9.5%。</p> <p>　　與DRAM相較，NAND閃存價(jià)格下跌幅度小了許多;但VLSIResearch指出，NAND閃存跌價(jià)幅度還是達到24個(gè)月摩爾定律率的兩倍：“手機、平板計算機是NAND閃存的需求主力，該市場(chǎng)衰退的原因是Apple已經(jīng)完成了今年度的采購。”</p> <p>　　還是有一些好消息，例如手機芯片市場(chǎng)表現強勁，封裝大廠(chǎng)日月光(ASE)也達成了優(yōu)于預期地的2010年第四季訂單量：“此外，平板計算機市場(chǎng)升溫，三星(SAMSung)最近發(fā)表GalaxyTab平板計算機新產(chǎn)品，這對手機芯片與NAND閃存供貨商來(lái)說(shuō)都是好消息。”VLSIResearch也表示，晶圓代工業(yè)表現搶眼，臺積電(TSMC)今明兩年營(yíng)收成長(cháng)率估計各有40%與10%。</p></span>  <div class="lmobjkl" id="coverDiv" class="article_reg" style="width:100%;overflow:hidden;display:none;z-index:10;position:absolute;left:0;background:#fff;"> <center> <img src="https://webstorage.eepw.com.cn/images/display/reg.jpg" border="0" usemap="#Map" /> <map name="Map" id="Map"> <area shape="rect" coords="133,235,319,253" target="_blank" /> <area shape="rect" coords="132,315,319,335" /> </map> </center> </div>  <span id="13huenb" class="hAd8"> <br></span>   </div> </article> <div id="v1ojxhv" class="clear"></div> <br/> <div id="thu5noy" class="hAd6"> <div class="5q6xkly" id="relA" style="width:auto;height:auto;"> <ul> <li>  <iframe id='af71d594' name='af71d594' 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