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class="cT"> <h2>新聞中心</h2> </div> <div id="38eelfa" class="hLocation"> <p><a href="http://dyxdggzs.com" target="_blank">EEPW首頁(yè)</a> > <a href="/info/industry/special/power">電源與新能源</a> > <a href="/info/articlelist/special/power/type/4">市場(chǎng)分析</a> > 深度分析光伏“產(chǎn)能過(guò)?！?/p> </div> </div> </div>    <div class="02ogztr" id="container"> <section> <article> <h1>深度分析光伏“產(chǎn)能過(guò)?！?/h1> <div id="du2xh38" class="authorTimeSource"> <span>作者：</span> <span>時(shí)間：2012-11-09</span> <span>來(lái)源：21ic</span> <link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css"/> <span style="float:right; width:130px;margin-right:0px; text-align:right;"> <div id="vg3v3vm" class="nav0"> <ul> <li><a href="javascript:void(0);"><img src="http://dyxdggzs.com/event/action/images/icon_add_4.png" width="20" border="0" align="absmiddle" />加入技術(shù)交流群</a> <ul> <li style="text-align:center;"><img src="http://dyxdggzs.com/event/company/images/code_1.jpg" width="130"><br />掃碼加入<br />和技術(shù)大咖面對面交流<br />海量資料庫查詢(xún)</li> </ul> </li> </ul> </div> </span> <span style="float:right; width:30px;margin-right:0px; text-align:right;"><a rel="nofollow">收藏</a></span> </div> <div id="n22bk3f" class="hAd4_Afinal20a_back">  <iframe id='a890e388' name='a890e388' src='https://ad.eepw.com.cn/www/delivery/afr.php?zoneid=88&cb=INSERT_RANDOM_NUMBER_HERE' frameborder='0' scrolling='no' width='660' height='60'><a target='_blank'><img src='https://ad.eepw.com.cn/www/delivery/avw.php?zoneid=88&cb=INSERT_RANDOM_NUMBER_HERE&n=a635e61e' border='0' alt='' /></a></iframe> </div> <div style="margin-top:28px;"></div> <div id="iidyyx3" class="content" id="contentDiv" style="position:relative;"> <div id="8mfbvfc" class="ad_300x180_Afinal13_back">  <iframe id='a225770a' name='a225770a' src='https://ad.eepw.com.cn/www/delivery/afr.php?zoneid=87&cb=INSERT_RANDOM_NUMBER_HERE' frameborder='0' scrolling='no' width='300' height='200'><a target='_blank'><img src='https://ad.eepw.com.cn/www/delivery/avw.php?zoneid=87&cb=INSERT_RANDOM_NUMBER_HERE&n=a576c0a2' border='0' alt='' /></a></iframe> </div> <span id="contentlabels" style="font-size:14px;"><p>　　如果從傳統能源與<a class="contentlabel" href="http://dyxdggzs.com/news/listbylabel/label/新能源"><em>新能源</em></a>相互競爭的角度看，雙反本身就壓縮了光伏市場(chǎng)的成長(cháng)前景，從而損害了全球光伏的未來(lái)市場(chǎng)。</p>本文引用地址：<a href="http://dyxdggzs.com/article/138756.htm">http://dyxdggzs.com/article/138756.htm</a> <p>　　在大多數市場(chǎng)參與者眼里和分析家筆下，<a class="contentlabel" href="http://dyxdggzs.com/news/listbylabel/label/光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)"><em>光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)</em></a>已經(jīng)成為當下“盲目擴張”和“產(chǎn)能過(guò)剩”的負面典型，國內外皆然。就中國<a class="contentlabel" href="http://dyxdggzs.com/news/listbylabel/label/光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)"><em>光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)</em></a>而言，連續5年年增長(cháng)率超過(guò)100%，在產(chǎn)品價(jià)格暴跌的背景下企業(yè)利潤銳減乃至大面積虧損，巨額負債更令企業(yè)如牛負重。</p> <p>　　2010年，<a class="contentlabel" href="http://dyxdggzs.com/news/listbylabel/label/光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)"><em>光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)</em></a>毛利率還在30%左右，2011年就降到10%以下，而這個(gè)行業(yè)企業(yè)毛利率若是達不到10%就難以實(shí)現盈利。到今年上半年，海外上市的中國光伏股中，毛利率低達1%以下者已經(jīng)比比皆是，有的甚至為負數。</p> <p>　　從已公布的上半年財報看，66家光伏上市企業(yè)凈利潤降幅普遍超過(guò)50%，毛利率均低于10%，10余家光伏上市公司虧損。在重重壓力之下，尚德、賽維等龍頭企業(yè)深陷破產(chǎn)危機。賽維LDK去年虧損6.5545億美元，今年上半年虧損10.8億元，負債266.76億元，資產(chǎn)負債率高達88%左右。</p> <p>　　近期，美歐相繼對中國光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)起“雙反”，也被國內外相當一部分觀(guān)察家視為中國光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)激進(jìn)擴張的必然結果。由于中國光伏組件出口依存度極高，2010年之前98%的產(chǎn)品出口歐美市場(chǎng)，2011年這項比例仍然高達90%，美歐對中國光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)的“雙反”又令其雪上加霜。</p> <p>　　就全世界光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)而言，在分析了300多家光伏電池板制造商的基礎上，可再生能源咨詢(xún)機構GTM研究(GTM Research)10月16日發(fā)布的報告估計，未來(lái)三年全世界光伏產(chǎn)品年均供應量將超出需求3500萬(wàn)千瓦，產(chǎn)能過(guò)剩很可能導致180家光伏電池制造商在2015年之前破產(chǎn)或被兼并，亦即60%的企業(yè)退出。</p> <p>　　傳統能源倒逼<a class="contentlabel" href="http://dyxdggzs.com/news/listbylabel/label/新能源"><em>新能源</em></a>擴張</p> <p>　　倘若從與傳統化石能源競爭的角度重新審視，我們不難對光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)的“盲目擴張”取得新的認識。</p> <p>　　光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)與傳統化石能源競爭的關(guān)鍵是價(jià)格和成本，光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)近年來(lái)得以實(shí)現高速增長(cháng)，并不是各國、各地政府的扶持，而是新世紀以來(lái)這一輪初級產(chǎn)品牛市中，石油天然氣等化石能源價(jià)格持續大幅度暴漲。各國、各地政府之所以決策強力支持扶植太陽(yáng)能等<a class="contentlabel" href="http://dyxdggzs.com/news/listbylabel/label/新能源"><em>新能源</em></a>，原因也在于此。</p> <p>　　因為太陽(yáng)能發(fā)電迄今成本較高，而且在供應電力穩定性等方面還不能與常規的火力發(fā)電相比。如果石油、天然氣、煤炭等化石能源保持低價(jià)，無(wú)情的市場(chǎng)規律將使得光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)難以找到足夠的需求，而如果需求太小，導致生產(chǎn)規模太小，不足以實(shí)現規模經(jīng)濟效益，光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)的成本就難以下降，也就更難以打開(kāi)市場(chǎng)銷(xiāo)路，形成惡性循環(huán)。正是石油天然氣等化石能源價(jià)格暴漲，才使得太陽(yáng)能發(fā)電的商業(yè)競爭力陡增，藉此贏(yíng)得了較大市場(chǎng)規模，光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)生產(chǎn)得以實(shí)現一定程度的規模經(jīng)濟效益，從而進(jìn)一步增強其價(jià)格競爭力，形成“市場(chǎng)擴大——規模經(jīng)濟效益降低成本——需求進(jìn)一步擴大”的良性循環(huán)。</p> <p>　　上述良性循環(huán)要想實(shí)現，關(guān)鍵就在于高投資和迅速形成生產(chǎn)能力，推動(dòng)生產(chǎn)成本和價(jià)格快速降低，從而搶在化石能源行情大幅度下跌之前建立對化石能源可持續的價(jià)格競爭力。</p> <p>　　回顧1970—1980年代石油危機前后替代能源和節能技術(shù)的命運變遷，就不難理解這一點(diǎn)對光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)何其至關(guān)重要。</p> <p>　　1970年代至1980年代前期，水力、核電、煤炭等替代能源和節能技術(shù)的開(kāi)發(fā)取得長(cháng)足進(jìn)展：二戰時(shí)期苦于油源匱乏，德國開(kāi)發(fā)的煤炭液化技術(shù)在戰后長(cháng)期被束之高閣，那時(shí)又被從故紙堆里翻出來(lái)并一度大放異彩;巴西大規模推行酒精燃料汽車(chē)計劃;哈默的西方石油公司在第二次石油危機的沖擊下竟然投入巨資在中國開(kāi)發(fā)安太堡煤礦……</p> <p>　　之所以如此，關(guān)鍵在于1973—1974年和1979—1980年的兩輪油價(jià)暴漲，用工業(yè)化國家出口的制成品衡量，1974年石油實(shí)際價(jià)格上漲3倍之多，以至于西方經(jīng)濟學(xué)者將歐佩克主導的這兩輪大幅度提高油價(jià)稱(chēng)為“世界歷史上壟斷力量的最大勝利”、“有史以來(lái)最成功的人為大提價(jià)”。</p> <p>　　然而，到上世紀80年代中期之后，隨著(zhù)實(shí)際油價(jià)顯著(zhù)下跌，很多替代能源和節能技術(shù)便長(cháng)期遭遇冷場(chǎng)，直至新世紀這一輪初級產(chǎn)品牛市才再度咸魚(yú)翻身。</p> <p>　　對于光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)而言，替代能源的上述歷史完全有可能重演。這兩年全球初級產(chǎn)品牛市已經(jīng)終結，包括能源在內的初級產(chǎn)品行情已經(jīng)顯著(zhù)下跌，美國發(fā)起的“頁(yè)巖氣革命”更令石油天然氣價(jià)格面臨持續下行的重壓，美國天然氣價(jià)格比一年前下跌了一半左右，歐美石油巨頭盈利因此普遍下滑。</p> <p>　　?？松梨诠镜诙径荣~面凈利潤有所增長(cháng)，但這種增長(cháng)主要來(lái)自出售在日資產(chǎn)等臨時(shí)性利潤，實(shí)際凈利潤減少了;雪佛龍公司整個(gè)凈利潤同比減少7%至72.1億美元;英荷殼牌石油公司第二季度凈利潤40.63億美元，同比銳減53%;英國石油公司第二季度虧損13.85億美元，而去年同期為盈利57.18億美元，是該公司2010年第二季度遭遇墨西哥灣漏油事件以來(lái)，第一次出現季度虧損;即使是石油服務(wù)商如<a class="contentlabel" href="http://dyxdggzs.com/news/listbylabel/label/哈利伯頓"><em>哈利伯頓</em></a>、貝克休斯、威德福等公司，其今年第二季度北美地區經(jīng)營(yíng)利潤也同比下降了10億美元左右。</p> <p>　　雙反有損于行業(yè)發(fā)展</p> <p>　　金融市場(chǎng)參與者們大力炒作的美國第三輪量化寬松預期、中國和歐洲反危機政策、中東動(dòng)蕩等題材固然能夠在能源和其它初級產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)上制造一次次反彈，卻并不足以對初級產(chǎn)品供求關(guān)系的總體格局產(chǎn)生大的影響。在這樣的市場(chǎng)環(huán)境下，包括太陽(yáng)能在內的新能源價(jià)格維持高位，只能使其在傳統能源價(jià)格下跌時(shí)加快被淘汰。</p> <p>　　不錯，光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)上下游價(jià)格均大幅度下降，光伏組件產(chǎn)品價(jià)格從10年前的6美元/瓦下降到目前的1美元/瓦，太陽(yáng)能發(fā)電成本從1美元/度下降到1元/度，多晶硅進(jìn)口價(jià)格從2008年最高時(shí)的接近300美元/公斤下跌到2012年6月的23.6美元/公斤……這樣的下跌固然給相當一部分企業(yè)帶來(lái)了困難，但基于上述分析，這樣的大幅度跌價(jià)又是光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)可持續生存所必不可少的。</p> <p>　　也正是從與傳統化石能源競爭的角度出發(fā)，生產(chǎn)成本明顯低得多的中國光伏企業(yè)具有更強競爭力和生存能力，在相當程度上代表了這個(gè)產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的方向。</p> <p>　　根據GTM研究報告的數據，歐洲、美國和日本光伏電池企業(yè)制造成本超過(guò)80美分/瓦，中國企業(yè)成本為58—68美分/瓦。盡管該報告估計未來(lái)3年內將有54家中國光伏企業(yè)破產(chǎn)或被兼并，但同一份報告估算的全球光伏電池企業(yè)破產(chǎn)、被兼并者超過(guò)180家，中國企業(yè)破產(chǎn)家數占比例在30%以?xún)?，明顯低于中國光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)產(chǎn)能占全球全行業(yè)比重，實(shí)際上是從側面認定中國光伏企業(yè)在全行業(yè)嚴冬中生存能力更強。</p> <p>　　慫恿本國政府對中國同行發(fā)動(dòng)“雙反”、企圖維持光伏產(chǎn)品高價(jià)的歐美廠(chǎng)商，奉行的是一條不切實(shí)際的錯誤經(jīng)營(yíng)思路，只能使光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)難以足夠迅速地降低生產(chǎn)成本和銷(xiāo)售價(jià)格，在常規化石能源面前難與爭鋒。即使不考慮歐美光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)獲得巨額政府資助的事實(shí)，領(lǐng)頭投訴中國產(chǎn)業(yè)、挑起美歐對華“太陽(yáng)能戰爭”的德國太陽(yáng)能世界公司(Solar World)在2003—2011年間直接獲得的政府資助就有1.37億歐元。</p> <p>　　即使不考慮中國已經(jīng)具備了發(fā)動(dòng)貿易報復和在世貿組織打“規則戰”的能力，單從美歐自身得失和想要達到的目的出發(fā)，他們發(fā)起的這場(chǎng)“太陽(yáng)能戰爭”也在多個(gè)方面深陷誤區，最大誤區就是他們發(fā)起的這場(chǎng)“太陽(yáng)能戰爭”本身就會(huì )壓縮光伏市場(chǎng)的成長(cháng)前景，進(jìn)而損害他們意欲拯救的國內光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)。就算是歐美政府“成功”地將中國光伏產(chǎn)品拒之門(mén)外，他們的本土光伏企業(yè)也經(jīng)受不起廉價(jià)的傳統化石能源競爭。</p> <p>　　而由于中國國內市場(chǎng)廣大，且中國政府必定會(huì )在國內消費和開(kāi)拓出口新市場(chǎng)方面采取措施，以求保住這個(gè)產(chǎn)業(yè)，這個(gè)行業(yè)國產(chǎn)品牌價(jià)格的大幅度下跌也給國內市場(chǎng)需求上升創(chuàng )造了條件，他們的“雙方”也不可能打垮、消滅中國光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)這個(gè)競爭對手。畢竟，2011年中國占全球實(shí)際GDP份額已達14.3%，與整個(gè)歐元區相當。目前歐盟光伏市場(chǎng)為20GW，因此中國“十二五”規劃制定的22GW—25GW目標并非虛無(wú)縹緲無(wú)從落實(shí)，而是很有可能變?yōu)楝F實(shí)。</p> <p>　　基于上述分析，中國光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)的高速成長(cháng)本身并非錯誤，錯誤的是進(jìn)入的技術(shù)標準等壁壘太低，監管太“溫柔”，以至于不具備基礎專(zhuān)業(yè)知識、在生產(chǎn)中大量使用廢次料的小廠(chǎng)也得以大量興起，惡化了整個(gè)行業(yè)的發(fā)展環(huán)境，讓我們在不可避免優(yōu)勝劣汰的產(chǎn)業(yè)競爭中付出了一部分本可避免的代價(jià)。能夠推動(dòng)一個(gè)新興產(chǎn)業(yè)在數年之內躍居世界第一、占據全球市場(chǎng)60%以上份額，這是中國發(fā)展能力的表現，在越來(lái)越多的國家企圖“趕超”中國之際，這種能力正日益顯得可貴。</p> <p>　　這種情況下，我們該做的是借助當前的行業(yè)嚴冬淘汰不合格小廠(chǎng)，而不是自廢武功。在市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟體制下，我們不能指望完全避免源于優(yōu)勝劣汰競爭的“產(chǎn)能過(guò)剩”和“浪費”，而如果我們想在一個(gè)重要行業(yè)的國際競爭中占據主導地位，即使在全球性產(chǎn)業(yè)危機中有一批企業(yè)被淘汰，只要我們破產(chǎn)重組企業(yè)占比低于產(chǎn)能占比，在全球該產(chǎn)業(yè)重組之后我們的市場(chǎng)份額和地位就仍然會(huì )保持或繼續提高，我們要達到的目標仍然可以實(shí)現。</p></span>  <div class="5ku83pg" id="coverDiv" class="article_reg" style="width:100%;overflow:hidden;display:none;z-index:10;position:absolute;left:0;background:#fff;"> <center> <img src="https://webstorage.eepw.com.cn/images/display/reg.jpg" border="0" usemap="#Map" /> <map name="Map" id="Map"> <area shape="rect" coords="133,235,319,253" target="_blank" /> <area shape="rect" coords="132,315,319,335" /> </map> </center> </div>  <span id="lqmgbvp" class="hAd8"> <br></span>   </div> </article> <div id="pvr2hql" class="clear"></div> <br/> <div id="icy8uni" class="hAd6"> <div class="83ytmgz" id="relA" style="width:auto;height:auto;"> <ul> <li>  <iframe id='af71d594' name='af71d594' 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